Has @paddypower lost their mind?
I don't know if anyone else has noticed these New App Power Plays that Paddy Power has been running this week, to launch their new mobile app.
I missed the first day which saw Harry Kane enhanced from 4/6 to 3/1 to score any time versus Aston Villa. And he did.
But I did get on the enhanced specials the next day and the days after, and the one after that!
Ronaldo to score any time from 8/11 to 3/1 - €10 loss.
Man Utd and Man City to both win from 3/1 to 6/1 - €60 profit.
Lewandowsky to score from 8/11 to 2/1 - €20 profit.
Bayern and Chelsea to win from 7/5 to 7/2 - €35 profit.
Liverpool and Tottenham to win from 10/3 to 5/1 - €50 profit.
Harry Kane to score first vs Anderlecht from 7/2 to 5/1 - €50 profit.
For a total profit of €205 in three days.
On the app at the moment is Rooney to score against West Brom at 5/2 from 4/5, and apparently these enhanced offers are going to continue for 30 days.
These are crazy odds and with a simple heuristic I guess that you can be earning 50% profit on these guys.
Apart from being really lucky to have won 5 from 6 so far, I figure that you should still be making a profit on these offers even without luck. For example 4/5 on Rooney to score any time implies a 55% probability (5/[4+5]). But this is over-exagerated, normally to ensure a bookie profit so divide by about 1.2 to get a closer estimate to the real probability of 46%. So at 5/2 on your tenner your payout will be €35 with 46% probability and €0 with 54% probability - giving an expect payout of €16.20 (=35*.46 + 0*.54). This covers your stake and gives an expected €6.20 profit.
You can do the same calculation for price boosts offered on any online bookie and you will be surprised how often that even the enhanced odds are not worth the money. For example a 5/1 enhanced to 6/1 doesn't offer value by this theory. So beware.
The New App Power Plays are the real deal so far though, so download the mobile phone app and get tapping! The only drawback is that you can only stake €10.
Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG.
I missed the first day which saw Harry Kane enhanced from 4/6 to 3/1 to score any time versus Aston Villa. And he did.
But I did get on the enhanced specials the next day and the days after, and the one after that!
Ronaldo to score any time from 8/11 to 3/1 - €10 loss.
Man Utd and Man City to both win from 3/1 to 6/1 - €60 profit.
Lewandowsky to score from 8/11 to 2/1 - €20 profit.
Bayern and Chelsea to win from 7/5 to 7/2 - €35 profit.
Liverpool and Tottenham to win from 10/3 to 5/1 - €50 profit.
Harry Kane to score first vs Anderlecht from 7/2 to 5/1 - €50 profit.
For a total profit of €205 in three days.
On the app at the moment is Rooney to score against West Brom at 5/2 from 4/5, and apparently these enhanced offers are going to continue for 30 days.
These are crazy odds and with a simple heuristic I guess that you can be earning 50% profit on these guys.
Apart from being really lucky to have won 5 from 6 so far, I figure that you should still be making a profit on these offers even without luck. For example 4/5 on Rooney to score any time implies a 55% probability (5/[4+5]). But this is over-exagerated, normally to ensure a bookie profit so divide by about 1.2 to get a closer estimate to the real probability of 46%. So at 5/2 on your tenner your payout will be €35 with 46% probability and €0 with 54% probability - giving an expect payout of €16.20 (=35*.46 + 0*.54). This covers your stake and gives an expected €6.20 profit.
You can do the same calculation for price boosts offered on any online bookie and you will be surprised how often that even the enhanced odds are not worth the money. For example a 5/1 enhanced to 6/1 doesn't offer value by this theory. So beware.
The New App Power Plays are the real deal so far though, so download the mobile phone app and get tapping! The only drawback is that you can only stake €10.
Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG.
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