FIFA Rankings Day
The 9th July sees the latest release of the FIFA World Rankings. These rankings will be used on the 25th of July to determine the Pots for the WC2018 qualifying draw.
The teams will be be drawn into 9 groups based on these Pots. The 9 groups winners qualify automatically and the 8 best runners up go into a playoff.
The Pots are determined by FIFA Ranking Pts, I have added some other team strength indicators in the below tables. Hover over some fields for more details. Bookie Rating is the odds of winning the WC2018 outright. Best result is calculated based on FIFA Ranking points earned (based on match result and level of competition and level of opponent).
POT 1
The big one to avoid here is obviously Germany. FIFA, the bookies and Brazil can all agree that they are the strongest team. Recent form will give whoever draw them a little hope, with defeat to Poland and USA and a draw with Ireland and Australia in their last 6.
Wales are probably the weakest team in Pot 1, but they have made it there on merit with some great form to take points off teams like Belgium and Bosnia. The win vs Switzerland in 2012 show though that their form stretches back further than just this campaign.
Croatia and Romania would also be favourable draws for any team. However any team in Pot 1 is there by merit so will provide tough opposition for anyone.
POT 2
Clearly France need to be avoided here. Their FIFA Ranking Points and thus their seeding has been affected by the lack of competitive matches. They qualify automatically for the Euro 2016 as hosts and so have been restricted to friendlies for the past year.
Iceland and Slovakia would be the preference here.
POT 3
There are still some very tough teams in Pot 3 - Ukraine, Poland, Greece and Sweden.
The easiest draw here is probably Northern Ireland or Albania. Northern Ireland have picked up a lot of good results recently - but they may have benefitted from an easy Euro Qualifying group. Going back 4 years their win % is on a par with Latvia and Georgia.
Albania have recent wins against Portugal and France, so even they are to be feared.
POT 4
There isn't a lot of quality in Pot 4 but Turkey will probably be one to avoid.
Faroe Islands are by far the worst team in this Pot with only 2 wins and 1 draw over their last 22 matches. But those wins did come against Greece who are not pushovers - so the Faroes have earned at least some respect.
POT 5
Any of the above would be fine. Finland look the strongest on paper but they have lost their last 6 games straight.
POT 6
These are the worst of the worst. You would probably pick Andorra though, their best result in 4 years being a 0-0 draw with Azerbaijan in a friendly.
The teams will be be drawn into 9 groups based on these Pots. The 9 groups winners qualify automatically and the 8 best runners up go into a playoff.
The Pots are determined by FIFA Ranking Pts, I have added some other team strength indicators in the below tables. Hover over some fields for more details. Bookie Rating is the odds of winning the WC2018 outright. Best result is calculated based on FIFA Ranking points earned (based on match result and level of competition and level of opponent).
POT 1
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1411 | 9/2 | 33-11-8 | 63.46% | 7-1 vs Brazil | L | D | W | D | W | L |
| Spain | 1110 | 8/1 | 38-7-10 | 69.09% | 1-0 vs Croatia | W | L | W | L | W | W |
| Netherlands | 1204 | 14/1 | 28-11-13 | 53.85% | 5-1 vs Spain | L | W | D | W | L | W |
| Belgium | 1244 | 16/1 | 26-11-7 | 59.09% | 1-0 vs Russia | W | D | W | W | W | L |
| England | 1157 | 25/1 | 27-14-6 | 57.45% | 3-2 vs Sweden | W | W | W | D | D | W |
| Portugal | 1177 | 33/1 | 27-11-10 | 56.25% | 2-1 vs Ghana | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| Croatia | 1023 | 50/1 | 23-10-11 | 52.27% | 3-1 vs Republic of Ireland | W | W | L | D | W | D |
| Romania | 1010 | 100/1 | 20-11-7 | 52.63% | 1-0 vs Greece | D | W | W | W | W | D |
| Wales | 1155 | 500/1 | 13-5-12 | 43.33% | 2-0 vs Switzerland | W | D | W | D | W | W |
The big one to avoid here is obviously Germany. FIFA, the bookies and Brazil can all agree that they are the strongest team. Recent form will give whoever draw them a little hope, with defeat to Poland and USA and a draw with Ireland and Australia in their last 6.
Wales are probably the weakest team in Pot 1, but they have made it there on merit with some great form to take points off teams like Belgium and Bosnia. The win vs Switzerland in 2012 show though that their form stretches back further than just this campaign.
Croatia and Romania would also be favourable draws for any team. However any team in Pot 1 is there by merit so will provide tough opposition for anyone.
POT 2
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 882 | 10/1 | 27-13-12 | 51.92% | 5-2 vs Switzerland | D | W | L | W | L | L |
| Italy | 1001 | 16/1 | 22-21-12 | 40.00% | 2-1 vs England | D | W | D | D | D | L |
| Switzerland | 997 | 50/1 | 24-8-8 | 60.00% | 2-1 vs Ecuador | W | D | W | D | W | W |
| Czech Republic | 901 | 66/1 | 18-10-13 | 43.90% | 2-1 vs Greece | W | W | W | D | L | L |
| Denmark | 876 | 66/1 | 20-8-15 | 46.51% | 1-0 vs Netherlands | W | L | W | L | W | W |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 819 | 66/1 | 20-7-13 | 50.00% | 3-1 vs Iran | D | D | L | W | D | W |
| Austria | 1016 | 100/1 | 16-9-10 | 45.71% | 2-1 vs Sweden | W | W | L | W | D | W |
| Slovakia | 1016 | 500/1 | 18-8-10 | 50.00% | 2-1 vs Spain | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Iceland | 877 | 1000/1 | 16-6-16 | 42.11% | 2-0 vs Netherlands | L | W | D | W | D | W |
Clearly France need to be avoided here. Their FIFA Ranking Points and thus their seeding has been affected by the lack of competitive matches. They qualify automatically for the Euro 2016 as hosts and so have been restricted to friendlies for the past year.
Iceland and Slovakia would be the preference here.
POT 3
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 791 | 66/1 | 24-8-11 | 55.81% | 2-1 vs Sweden | W | D | L | D | W | W |
| Poland | 769 | 66/1 | 20-15-10 | 44.44% | 2-0 vs Germany | D | W | D | D | W | D |
| Greece | 661 | 66/1 | 19-16-11 | 41.30% | 2-1 vs Ivory Coast | L | L | L | D | L | D |
| Sweden | 752 | 66/1 | 27-7-15 | 55.10% | 2-0 vs France | L | W | W | W | D | W |
| Serbia | 662 | 100/1 | 15-9-16 | 37.50% | 6-1 vs Wales | W | L | W | L | W | L |
| Hungary | 763 | 300/1 | 17-10-8 | 48.57% | 2-1 vs Sweden | W | W | L | D | W | W |
| Scotland | 774 | 500/1 | 16-8-10 | 47.06% | 1-0 vs Croatia | D | W | L | W | W | D |
| Northern Ireland | 721 | 1000/1 | 6-9-16 | 19.35% | 2-0 vs Greece | W | L | L | W | D | D |
| Albania | 722 | 1000/1 | 12-9-14 | 34.29% | 1-0 vs Portugal | D | L | D | L | W | W |
There are still some very tough teams in Pot 3 - Ukraine, Poland, Greece and Sweden.
The easiest draw here is probably Northern Ireland or Albania. Northern Ireland have picked up a lot of good results recently - but they may have benefitted from an easy Euro Qualifying group. Going back 4 years their win % is on a par with Latvia and Georgia.
Albania have recent wins against Portugal and France, so even they are to be feared.
POT 4
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 627 | 100/1 | 22-8-14 | 50.00% | 2-0 vs Romania | L | W | D | W | W | W |
| Norway | 495 | 150/1 | 15-9-18 | 35.71% | 2-1 vs Slovenia | W | L | W | L | D | D |
| Bulgaria | 489 | 150/1 | 10-8-14 | 31.25% | 1-0 vs Armenia | L | L | D | D | L | W |
| Montenegro | 423 | 200/1 | 9-9-13 | 29.03% | 1-0 vs Ukraine | D | L | D | L | L | L |
| Israel | 620 | 500/1 | 10-6-15 | 32.26% | 3-0 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | W | W | W | L | L | L |
| Republic of Ireland | 608 | 500/1 | 15-17-13 | 33.33% | 2-1 vs Armenia | D | L | W | D | D | D |
| Slovenia | 626 | 1000/1 | 12-3-19 | 35.29% | 1-0 vs Switzerland | W | L | L | W | L | L |
| Estonia | 420 | 1000/1 | 18-7-24 | 36.73% | 2-1 vs Slovenia | W | L | L | D | W | W |
| Faroe Islands | 456 | 1000/1 | 2-1-19 | 9.09% | 1-0 vs Greece | L | L | L | W | L | W |
There isn't a lot of quality in Pot 4 but Turkey will probably be one to avoid.
Faroe Islands are by far the worst team in this Pot with only 2 wins and 1 draw over their last 22 matches. But those wins did come against Greece who are not pushovers - so the Faroes have earned at least some respect.
POT 5
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finland | 371 | 500/1 | 13-10-15 | 34.21% | 1-0 vs Belarus | L | L | L | L | L | L |
| FYR Macedonia | 311 | 500/1 | 10-8-20 | 26.32% | 1-0 vs Serbia | W | L | L | L | D | L |
| Armenia | 373 | 1000/1 | 11-3-20 | 32.35% | 4-0 vs Denmark | L | D | L | L | L | L |
| Cyprus | 391 | 1000/1 | 5-4-20 | 17.24% | 2-1 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | W | L | L | W | L | W |
| Lithuania | 301 | 1000/1 | 7-8-20 | 20.00% | 1-0 vs Estonia | L | D | L | L | L | L |
| Latvia | 377 | 1000/1 | 7-12-17 | 19.44% | 1-0 vs Georgia | L | D | L | D | D | L |
| Belarus | 341 | 1000/1 | 12-11-17 | 30.00% | 2-0 vs Georgia | L | W | W | D | L | L |
| Azerbaijan | 302 | 1000/1 | 9-13-15 | 24.32% | 2-0 vs Northern Ireland | L | L | L | W | L | D |
| Moldova | 236 | 1000/1 | 7-11-22 | 17.50% | 5-2 vs Montenegro | D | L | D | L | D | D |
Any of the above would be fine. Finland look the strongest on paper but they have lost their last 6 games straight.
POT 6
| FIFA Ranking Pts | Bookie Rating | Last 4 yrs W-D-L | Last 4 yrs win % | Best Result last 4 yrs | Form | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 187 | 1000/1 | 4-8-21 | 12.12% | 2-1 vs Albania | L | L | L | L | D | L |
| Kazakhstan | 193 | 1000/1 | 6-10-18 | 17.65% | 2-1 vs Faroe Islands | L | D | L | D | D | L |
| Liechtenstein | 182 | 1000/1 | 3-5-25 | 9.09% | 1-0 vs Moldova | L | W | L | W | L | D |
| Georgia | 165 | 1000/1 | 7-4-19 | 23.33% | 1-0 vs Belarus | L | L | W | L | L | L |
| Malta | 157 | 1000/1 | 8-3-21 | 25.00% | 1-0 vs Armenia | L | D | L | L | W | L |
| San Marino | 40 | 1000/1 | 0-1-23 | 0.00% | 0-0 vs Estonia | L | L | D | L | L | L |
| Andorra | 9 | 1000/1 | 0-2-26 | 0.00% | 0-0 vs Azerbaijan | L | L | L | L | L | L |
These are the worst of the worst. You would probably pick Andorra though, their best result in 4 years being a 0-0 draw with Azerbaijan in a friendly.
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