World Cup Seeding Blunder
Oct 2013 Rankings used to determine WC2014
seeds shows SWI just 2 pts ahead of ITA and NED
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There were plenty of raised eye brows and quizzical glances when the seedings were announced for the World Cup. Switzerland were the surprise inclusion in the top seeds at the expense of Italy and Netherlands. Nobody complained too much. The seeds are based on FIFA Rankings, and although the rankings are not always 100% realistic they are the best that we have. The difficulty in ranking teams stems from the fact that each nation plays only about a dozen matches per year and half of those are probably friendlies. Also inter-confederation competitions (as is the World Cup) happen only every four years and when they do they only take place between the top teams in the confederations. So how is it possible to rank for example Canada against Ireland? Faroe Islands against Aruba?
In any case Italy and the Netherlands had the same chance as Switzerland to earn rankings points. The overall consensus was that they arranged some poor friendlies against weaker opposition that could only hurt their points.
But what if there was another reason? What if FIFA miscalculated the points? The system is open and FIFA publish the basic rules for earning points. On their website they explain the points earned per game is the product of the match result, the importance of the match, the strength of the opposition and the regional strength of the confederation. I am contending that FIFA are not calculating the points correctly according to their rules. I believe that Italy should have been top seeds in place of Switzerland, or at least a coin toss to decide as both teams should have had the same points.
If I am right then England were disadvantaged by having two seeded teams in their group - Uruguay the official seeds and Italy who should have been seeds. Italy were also punished as they would have been handed an easier draw, in particular they would have avoided Uruguay and all of the other top seeds. Switzerland were the real winners in this situation. They made it to the Round of 16 perhaps helped in a small way by their relatively easy draw. And pocketed the 9 million dollars prize money as a result of making the last 16. Are England or Italy out 9 million dollars and a fair crack at the World Cup because of the FIFA blunder?
The details of the blunder are very boring and involve alot of figures, so I have pushed the calculations to the bottom of this post. However the basic gist of the story is that Norway played South Africa in a friendly match in Jan 2013 and were awarded more points than they should have been. So what does this have to do with anything? Well Norway were in Switzerland's World Cup Qualifying group. So Norway's misplaced ranking had a knock on effect on Switzerland. How can this make a big difference when the points are averaged out over all games? Surely a misjudgement in the ranking of one place cant make a big difference. This is where a weird quirk of fate comes into play. The same day that Switzerland played Norway, Italy played the Czech Republic. Switzerland were awarded more points than they should have been and Italy were awarded less points. This is because Czech Republic were the team that Norway leaped because of their over inflated points! So Norway were over rated on the strength factor of the points calculation, and Czech Republic were under rated. As a result Switzerland were awarded too many points, Italy were not awarded enough.
Lets go back to the question of Norway. How could they have been awarded too many points? In the Ranking Points rules that I linked to above the strength factor of the points is defined as:
T: Strength of opposing teamThe strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 - the ranking position of the opponents. As an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50. The ranking position is taken from the opponents’ ranking in the most recently published FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
The ambiguity here is that they do not specify what they mean by "most recently published". Is this the most recent relative to the date the match was played or relative to some other date? If you scroll down to their examples and if you use any modicum of common sense you would arrive at the conclusion that the strength should be calculated based on the rank of the opponent on the date of the match. Based on that, South Africa were ranked 87th in Jan 2013 and so strength of opponent should be T=200-87=113. Norway should have been awarded:
P = M * I * T * C = 3 * 1 * 113 * 0.93 = 315.27 pts
Now here is how FIFA do it. The Norway against South Africa game was not originally considered an official A International. It was only added maybe sometime after March! There is no apparent reason for the long delay in classifying the match. Now here is where FIFA do something very strange. Instead now the strength of the opponent is calculated based on the date the match was inserted, so in this case March. South Africa were ranked 60th in March, so T=200-60=140. FIFA awarded Norway:
P = M * I * T * C = 3 * 1 * 140 * 0.93 = 390.60 pts
Finally as promised the boring calculations are below.
Lets look at Norway's ranking on the date they played Switzerland 10th Sep 2013. The latest FIFA rankings release was 8th Aug 2013 as there was no other release until 12th Sep. As you can see. Norway are ranked 25th with 801 pts and Czech Republic are ranked 26 with 797 pts.
Finally as promised the boring calculations are below.
Ranking for Aug 2013, SWI and ITA played
CZE and NOR in September so this ranking
affects pts gained for those games;
Now lets recalculate Norways points based on the correct points they should have been awarded for the S. Africa friendly.
| Match Date | Opponent | M | I | T | C | Ranking Pts should have been awarded | Actual Pts Awarded by FIFA | |
Matches to Aug 2013 (weighting = 1.0)
| 11/06/2013 | FYR Macedonia | 3 | 1.0 | 122 | 1.00 | 366.00 | 366.00 |
| 07/06/2013 | Albania | 1 | 2.5 | 162 | 1.00 | 405.00 | 405.00 | |
| 22/03/2013 | Albania | 0 | 2.5 | 136 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 06/02/2013 | Ukraine | 0 | 1.0 | 156 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 08/01/2013 | South Africa | 3 | 1.0 | 113 | 0.93 | 315.27 | 390.60 | |
| 14/11/2012 | Hungary | 3 | 1.0 | 170 | 1.00 | 510.00 | 510.00 | |
| 16/10/2012 | Cyprus | 3 | 2.5 | 93 | 1.00 | 697.50 | 697.50 | |
| 12/10/2012 | Switzerland | 1 | 2.5 | 185 | 1.00 | 462.50 | 462.50 | |
| 11/09/2012 | Slovenia | 3 | 2.5 | 176 | 1.00 | 1320.00 | 1320.00 | |
| 07/09/2012 | Iceland | 0 | 2.5 | 82 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 15/08/2012 | Greece | 0 | 1.0 | 188 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Average 2013 | 370.57 | 377.42 | ||||||
Matches to Aug 2012 (weighting = 0.5)
| 02/06/2012 | Croatia | 1 | 1.0 | 192 | 1.00 | 192.00 | 192.00 |
| 26/05/2012 | England | 0 | 1.0 | 193 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 29/02/2012 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 1.0 | 114 | 1.00 | 342.00 | 342.00 | |
| 18/01/2012 | Thailand | 3 | 1.0 | 76 | 0.93 | 212.04 | 212.04 | |
| 12/11/2011 | Wales | 0 | 1.0 | 155 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 11/10/2011 | Cyprus | 3 | 2.5 | 114 | 1.00 | 855.00 | 855.00 | |
| 06/09/2011 | Denmark | 0 | 2.5 | 179 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 02/09/2011 | Iceland | 3 | 2.5 | 76 | 1.00 | 570.00 | 570.00 | |
| 10/08/2011 | Czech Republic | 3 | 1.0 | 162 | 1.00 | 486.00 | 486.00 | |
| Average 2012 | 295.23 | 295.23 | ||||||
Matches to Aug 2011 (weighting = 0.3)
| 07/06/2011 | Lithuania | 3 | 1.0 | 152 | 1.00 | 456.00 | 456.00 |
| 04/06/2011 | Portugal | 0 | 2.5 | 192 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 26/03/2011 | Denmark | 1 | 2.5 | 172 | 1.00 | 430.00 | 430.00 | |
| 09/02/2011 | Poland | 0 | 1.0 | 129 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 17/11/2010 | Republic of Ireland | 3 | 1.0 | 168 | 1.00 | 504.00 | 504.00 | |
| 12/10/2010 | Croatia | 0 | 1.0 | 189 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 08/10/2010 | Cyprus | 3 | 2.5 | 157 | 1.00 | 1177.50 | 1177.50 | |
| 07/09/2010 | Portugal | 3 | 2.5 | 192 | 1.00 | 1440.00 | 1440.00 | |
| 03/09/2010 | Iceland | 3 | 2.5 | 121 | 1.00 | 907.50 | 907.50 | |
| 11/08/2010 | France | 3 | 1.0 | 179 | 1.00 | 537.00 | 537.00 | |
| Average 2011 | 545.20 | 545.20 | ||||||
Matches to Aug 2010 (weighting = 0.2)
| 02/06/2010 | Ukraine | 0 | 1.0 | 177 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2010 | Montenegro | 3 | 1.0 | 136 | 1.00 | 408.00 | 408.00 | |
| 03/03/2010 | Slovakia | 3 | 1.0 | 169 | 1.00 | 507.00 | 507.00 | |
| 14/11/2009 | Switzerland | 3 | 1.0 | 187 | 1.00 | 561.00 | 561.00 | |
| 10/10/2009 | South Africa | 3 | 1.0 | 127 | 0.93 | 352.43 | 352.43 | |
| 09/09/2009 | FYR Macedonia | 3 | 2.5 | 144 | 1.00 | 1080.00 | 1080.00 | |
| 05/09/2009 | Iceland | 1 | 2.5 | 104 | 1.00 | 260.00 | 260.00 | |
| 12/08/2009 | Scotland | 3 | 2.5 | 176 | 1.00 | 1320.00 | 1320.00 | |
| Average 2010 | 561.05 | 561.05 | ||||||
| Weighted Sum all years | 793.95 | 800.80 |
Ranking pts calculation for NOR for Aug 2013 showing FIFA calculations
and correct calculation.
FIFA round off the figures, look at the weighted sum on the last line, the official points in Aug 2013 for Norway was 801 points, but as you can see, it should have been 794 points. If you cross check with the rankings table again for Aug 2013 you will see that this is enough to drop Norway to 26 and thus lifting Czech Republic to 25.
Now have a look at Italy and Switzerland's ranking points on Oct 2013. This time we will revise the strength for the Norway and for Czech Republic matches to what the strengths should have been according to the corrected Aug rankings above. Oct 2013 were the official rankings which determined the seeds for World Cup 2014.
First Switzerland:
| Match Date | Opponent | M | I | T | C | Ranking Pts should have been awarded | Actual Pts Awarded by FIFA | |
Matches to Oct 2013 (weighting = 1.0)
| 15/10/2013 | Slovenia | 3 | 2.5 | 171 | 1.00 | 1282.50 | 1282.50 |
| 11/10/2013 | Albania | 3 | 2.5 | 155 | 1.00 | 1162.50 | 1162.50 | |
| 10/09/2013 | Norway | 3 | 2.5 | 174 | 1.00 | 1305.00 | 1312.50 | |
| 06/09/2013 | Iceland | 1 | 2.5 | 130 | 1.00 | 325.00 | 325.00 | |
| 14/08/2013 | Brazil | 3 | 1.0 | 191 | 1.00 | 573.00 | 573.00 | |
| 08/06/2013 | Cyprus | 3 | 2.5 | 78 | 1.00 | 585.00 | 585.00 | |
| 23/03/2013 | Cyprus | 1 | 2.5 | 67 | 1.00 | 167.50 | 167.50 | |
| 06/02/2013 | Greece | 1 | 1.0 | 189 | 1.00 | 189.00 | 189.00 | |
| 14/11/2012 | Tunisia | 3 | 1.0 | 154 | 0.93 | 429.66 | 429.66 | |
| Average 2013 | 668.80 | 669.63 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2012 (weighting = 0.5)
| 16/10/2012 | Iceland | 3 | 2.5 | 103 | 1.00 | 772.50 | 772.50 |
| 12/10/2012 | Norway | 1 | 2.5 | 174 | 1.00 | 435.00 | 435.00 | |
| 11/09/2012 | Albania | 3 | 2.5 | 116 | 1.00 | 870.00 | 870.00 | |
| 07/09/2012 | Slovenia | 3 | 2.5 | 176 | 1.00 | 1320.00 | 1320.00 | |
| 15/08/2012 | Croatia | 3 | 1.0 | 191 | 1.00 | 573.00 | 573.00 | |
| 30/05/2012 | Romania | 0 | 1.0 | 155 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 26/05/2012 | Germany | 3 | 1.0 | 198 | 1.00 | 594.00 | 594.00 | |
| 29/02/2012 | Argentina | 0 | 1.0 | 189 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 15/11/2011 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1.0 | 82 | 1.00 | 246.00 | 246.00 | |
| 11/11/2011 | Netherlands | 1 | 1.0 | 198 | 1.00 | 198.00 | 198.00 | |
| Average 2012 | 500.85 | 500.85 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2011 (weighting = 0.3)
| 11/10/2011 | Montenegro | 3 | 2.5 | 174 | 1.00 | 1305.00 | 1305.00 |
| 07/10/2011 | Wales | 0 | 2.5 | 110 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 06/09/2011 | Bulgaria | 3 | 2.5 | 149 | 1.00 | 1117.50 | 1117.50 | |
| 10/08/2011 | Liechtenstein | 3 | 1.0 | 82 | 1.00 | 246.00 | 246.00 | |
| 04/06/2011 | England | 1 | 2.5 | 194 | 1.00 | 485.00 | 485.00 | |
| 26/03/2011 | Bulgaria | 1 | 2.5 | 153 | 1.00 | 382.50 | 382.50 | |
| 09/02/2011 | Malta | 1 | 1.0 | 50 | 1.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | |
| 17/11/2010 | Ukraine | 1 | 1.0 | 164 | 1.00 | 164.00 | 164.00 | |
| Average 2011 | 468.75 | 468.75 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2010 (weighting = 0.2)
| 12/10/2010 | Wales | 3 | 2.5 | 115 | 1.00 | 862.50 | 862.50 |
| 08/10/2010 | Montenegro | 0 | 2.5 | 160 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 07/09/2010 | England | 0 | 2.5 | 193 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 03/09/2010 | Australia | 1 | 1.0 | 180 | 0.93 | 167.40 | 167.40 | |
| 11/08/2010 | Austria | 3 | 1.0 | 140 | 1.00 | 420.00 | 420.00 | |
| 25/06/2010 | Honduras | 1 | 4.0 | 162 | 0.93 | 599.40 | 599.40 | |
| 21/06/2010 | Chile | 0 | 4.0 | 182 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 16/06/2010 | Spain | 3 | 4.0 | 198 | 1.00 | 2376.00 | 2376.00 | |
| 05/06/2010 | Italy | 1 | 1.0 | 195 | 1.00 | 195.00 | 195.00 | |
| 01/06/2010 | Costa Rica | 0 | 1.0 | 160 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 03/03/2010 | Uruguay | 0 | 1.0 | 181 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 14/11/2009 | Norway | 0 | 1.0 | 163 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Average 2010 | 385.03 | 385.03 | ||||||
| Weighted Sum all years | 1136.85 | 1137.68 |
Ranking pts calculation for Oct 2013 for SWI. Miscalculated pts by FIFA highlighted.
This time the bottom line is 1136.85 which isn't enough to make a difference. After rounding it would leave Switzerland with 1137 points on Oct 2013. This is only half the story. The Italy/Czech game was also scored incorrectly. So now look at how that affects Italy's points.
Italy Ranking points:
| Match Date | Opponent | M | I | T | C | Ranking Pts should have been awarded | Actual Pts Awarded by FIFA | |
Matches to Oct 2013 (weighting = 1.0)
| 15/10/2013 | Armenia | 1 | 2.50 | 145 | 1.00 | 362.50 | 362.50 |
| 11/10/2013 | Denmark | 1 | 2.50 | 177 | 1.00 | 442.50 | 442.50 | |
| 10/09/2013 | Czech Republic | 3 | 2.50 | 175 | 1.00 | 1312.50 | 1305.00 | |
| 06/09/2013 | Bulgaria | 3 | 2.50 | 147 | 1.00 | 1102.50 | 1102.50 | |
| 14/08/2013 | Argentina | 0 | 1.00 | 196 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 30/06/2013 | Uruguay | 2 | 3.00 | 181 | 1.00 | 1086.00 | 1086.00 | |
| 27/06/2013 | Spain | 1 | 3.00 | 200 | 1.00 | 600.00 | 600.00 | |
| 22/06/2013 | Brazil | 0 | 3.00 | 178 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 19/06/2013 | Japan | 3 | 3.00 | 168 | 0.93 | 1406.16 | 1406.16 | |
| 16/06/2013 | Mexico | 3 | 3.00 | 183 | 0.94 | 1548.18 | 1548.18 | |
| 11/06/2013 | Haiti | 1 | 1.00 | 137 | 0.94 | 128.78 | 128.78 | |
| 07/06/2013 | Czech Republic | 1 | 2.50 | 176 | 1.00 | 440.00 | 440.00 | |
| 31/05/2013 | San Marino | 3 | 1.00 | 50 | 1.00 | 150.00 | 150.00 | |
| 26/03/2013 | Malta | 3 | 2.50 | 53 | 1.00 | 397.50 | 397.50 | |
| 21/03/2013 | Brazil | 1 | 1.00 | 182 | 1.00 | 182.00 | 182.00 | |
| 06/02/2013 | Netherlands | 1 | 1.00 | 192 | 1.00 | 192.00 | 192.00 | |
| 14/11/2012 | France | 0 | 1.00 | 182 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Average 2013 | 550.04 | 549.60 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2012 (weighting = 0.5)
| 16/10/2012 | Denmark | 3 | 2.50 | 182 | 1.00 | 1365.00 | 1365.00 |
| 12/10/2012 | Armenia | 3 | 2.50 | 136 | 1.00 | 1020.00 | 1020.00 | |
| 11/09/2012 | Malta | 3 | 2.50 | 61 | 1.00 | 457.50 | 457.50 | |
| 07/09/2012 | Bulgaria | 1 | 2.50 | 111 | 1.00 | 277.50 | 277.50 | |
| 15/08/2012 | England | 0 | 1.00 | 197 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 01/07/2012 | Spain | 0 | 3.00 | 200 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 28/06/2012 | Germany | 3 | 3.00 | 197 | 1.00 | 1773.00 | 1773.00 | |
| 24/06/2012 | England | 2 | 3.00 | 194 | 1.00 | 1164.00 | 1164.00 | |
| 18/06/2012 | Republic of Ireland | 3 | 3.00 | 182 | 1.00 | 1638.00 | 1638.00 | |
| 14/06/2012 | Croatia | 1 | 3.00 | 192 | 1.00 | 576.00 | 576.00 | |
| 10/06/2012 | Spain | 1 | 3.00 | 200 | 1.00 | 600.00 | 600.00 | |
| 01/06/2012 | Russia | 0 | 1.00 | 189 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 29/02/2012 | USA | 0 | 1.00 | 169 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 15/11/2011 | Uruguay | 0 | 1.00 | 196 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 11/11/2011 | Poland | 3 | 1.00 | 136 | 1.00 | 408.00 | 408.00 | |
| Average 2012 | 618.60 | 618.60 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2011 (weighting = 0.3)
| 11/10/2011 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 2.50 | 130 | 1.00 | 975.00 | 975.00 |
| 07/10/2011 | Serbia | 1 | 2.50 | 179 | 1.00 | 447.50 | 447.50 | |
| 06/09/2011 | Slovenia | 3 | 2.50 | 177 | 1.00 | 1327.50 | 1327.50 | |
| 02/09/2011 | Faroe Islands | 3 | 2.50 | 89 | 1.00 | 667.50 | 667.50 | |
| 10/08/2011 | Spain | 3 | 1.00 | 200 | 1.00 | 600.00 | 600.00 | |
| 07/06/2011 | Republic of Ireland | 0 | 1.00 | 166 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 03/06/2011 | Estonia | 3 | 2.50 | 125 | 1.00 | 937.50 | 937.50 | |
| 29/03/2011 | Ukraine | 3 | 1.00 | 167 | 1.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | |
| 25/03/2011 | Slovenia | 3 | 2.50 | 183 | 1.00 | 1372.50 | 1372.50 | |
| 09/02/2011 | Germany | 1 | 1.00 | 197 | 1.00 | 197.00 | 197.00 | |
| 17/11/2010 | Romania | 1 | 1.00 | 148 | 1.00 | 148.00 | 148.00 | |
| Average 2011 | 652.14 | 652.14 | ||||||
Matches to Oct 2010 (weighting = 0.2)
| 12/10/2010 | Serbia | 3 | 2.50 | 185 | 1.00 | 1387.50 | 1387.50 |
| 08/10/2010 | Northern Ireland | 1 | 2.50 | 155 | 1.00 | 387.50 | 387.50 | |
| 07/09/2010 | Faroe Islands | 3 | 2.50 | 82 | 1.00 | 615.00 | 615.00 | |
| 03/09/2010 | Estonia | 3 | 2.50 | 106 | 1.00 | 795.00 | 795.00 | |
| 10/08/2010 | C“te d'Ivoire | 0 | 1.00 | 174 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 24/06/2010 | Slovakia | 0 | 4.00 | 166 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 20/06/2010 | New Zealand | 1 | 4.00 | 122 | 0.93 | 451.40 | 451.40 | |
| 14/06/2010 | Paraguay | 1 | 4.00 | 169 | 0.99 | 669.24 | 669.24 | |
| 05/06/2010 | Switzerland | 1 | 1.00 | 176 | 1.00 | 176.00 | 176.00 | |
| 03/06/2010 | Mexico | 0 | 1.00 | 183 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 03/03/2010 | Cameroon | 1 | 1.00 | 180 | 0.93 | 166.50 | 166.50 | |
| 18/11/2009 | Sweden | 3 | 1.00 | 159 | 1.00 | 477.00 | 477.00 | |
| 14/11/2009 | Netherlands | 1 | 1.00 | 197 | 1.00 | 197.00 | 197.00 | |
| Average 2010 | 409.40 | 409.40 | ||||||
| Weighted Sum all years | 1136.86 | 1136.42 |
Pretty amazingly it would have left Italy 1136.86 ranking points for Oct 2013, which is 0.01 points more than Switzerland had. However with rounding it would have left both teams tied on 1137 points. I am not sure if FIFA in that case would have went to the decimal places, tossed a coin or had some other tie breaker rule to separate the teams.
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